Tropical System Expected to Strengthen Well South of Louisiana

An area of disturbed tropical weather well to the south of Louisiana's coastline has tropical observers taking notice. Today marks the first official day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. That season runs from June 1st through November 30th. Although, Mother Nature has jumped the gun by producing a named storm before the season officially starts over the past few years.

We almost have a similar scenario as Hurricane Season 2022 unfolds. The remnant moisture from Pacific Hurricane Agatha has moved over Mexico and is expected to interact with an upper-level low-pressure system over the next few days.

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center believe the instability of the remnant storms and spin in the atmosphere caused by the low will be enough to help the system strengthen into a tropical cyclone by as early as this weekend. In fact, many forecasters believe the system will become a tropical depression in the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

The Hurricane Center has listed the probability of the system strengthening at 70% over the next five days. As of now, model guidance suggests the storm system will move northeasterly off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. From there it should maintain a basic northeastward motion.

If that motion continues, model guidance suggests the storm system would interact with the southwest Florida coastline on Friday or by early Saturday. It does appear as though the system will not impact the northern Gulf Coast at all and there is still a large amount of uncertainty as to how strong the system will get before it makes landfall.

Those with travel plans to south Florida and the central Florida theme parks should monitor this storm system closely for the next several days. However, those of us with interests in Louisiana should not be threatened at all by this system. By the way, should the system earn a name it would be called Alex.