Hurricane Center Monitoring Three Areas for Development
Halloween decorations are going up and leaves are beginning to fall, we're done with Hurricane Season, right? Well, not so fast my friend. Technically the Atlantic Hurricane Season is active until November 30th. And, almost as if to prove a point, Mother Nature has refired her tropical weather machine and where there was once calm, there are now three different areas of concern that forecasters are watching.
The National Hurricane Center has two weather systems currently in their sights and forecasters believe the third area of concern will develop over the next few days in the southern Caribbean Sea, more on that one in just a minute.
The first area of concern is about 300 miles north of Bermuda in the mid-Atlantic. Forecasters do not give this system much of a chance to strengthen. In fact, they've got it listed at 10% or less, as far as the probability of strengthening is concerned, over the next five days.
The second area of concern is the yellow X that's depicted in the graphic above as being located between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. That system is given a 30% chance of growing stronger as it moves in a northerly direction. Both the first and second systems are currently not forecast to interact with any major land masses or the United States coastline.
The third entity, the one that's not on the map yet, maybe the bigger concern if some of the tropical forecast models are correct. Granted there are a lot of scenarios that will have to come together but some of the models do show this system developing into a tropical cyclone in early November.
But if ever there was a time to remind yourself that "one model solution does not constitute a forecast" this would be it. Yes, it's true the system could develop further and it's just as true the system could fall apart and dissipate into the tropical sky. We'll have to wait and see and that's what we will do for you.
By the way, the latest date a hurricane has made landfall in Louisiana is October 29th. It happened in 1985 and it was Hurricane Juan.