Tropical Trouble in Gulf for July 4th? Hurricane Center Watching

Louisiana residents from New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and Lake Charles can recite this weather poem that many of us learned in our youth, "Spring has sprung, fall has fell, it's almost July and it's hotter than...usual".

Come on, we were raised in families that didn't use that kind of language, although "hellish" would be an accurate description of what most of the I-10 corridor and the rest of the state will be facing again today.

Heat Advisories cover the entire state with the exception of the extreme southwestern corner of Louisiana but residents of Cameron, Calcasieu, Jeff Davis, Acadiana, Allen, Evangeline, and Beauregard Parishes shouldn't be too smug, it's going to be hot there too, they just don't have an advisory.

All of this heat is expected, it is darn near the Fourth of July and it's supposed to be hot and humid with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. July also starts the ramp-up to Louisiana's tropical season. Granted we won't hit Louisiana Primetime until September.

But that doesn't mean we can't experience tropical troubles well before August and it looks as if next week, the week of July 1st we might need to pay attention to the Gulf of Mexico and in particular the Bay of Campeche again.

Above is the seven-day tropical forecast from the National Hurricane Center. You can see the NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather off the coast of South America. This system is forecast to slide through the southern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan of Mexico, and into the Bay of Campeche by this time next week.

There are more than a few "ifs" with this system. As of now, the Hurricane Center isn't giving this storm system much of a chance for development. They have the probability listed at 20%. However, conditions across the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico are conducive for tropical systems to form and strengthen.

And while a full-blown tropical cyclone might not develop, we could see a situation similar to what happened with tropical storm Alberto last week. The system could kick up high surf along Louisiana's coast as well as the very crowded beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida over the July 4th holiday. This could lead to dangerous rip currents for swimmers.

Tropical model guidance does suggest a storm system of some kind in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by next week. However, the confidence in those models this far out is not enough to change any plans right now. But, the National Hurricane Center will monitor and we'll tell you what they see.