Tropical Models Raising Concerns for Louisiana & Gulf of Mexico

Louisiana parents know the eerie feeling that quietness can bring on. For example, you're working in your home office, and the kids are supposed to be playing. But you don't hear them; they are being quiet—too quiet. That's when a parent's "spidey senses" start tingling because they know they could literally be seconds from disaster.

Along Louisiana's Gulf Coast in cities such as Lake Charles, Lafayette, Morgan City, and Houma we've experienced that "quiet child" syndrome this month. Except our "quiet child" has been the Tropical Atlantic Basin. We were told to expect a raucous and rather intense hurricane season this year. So far, August has been quiet, and dare we say it again out loud, too quiet.

August Did Have Two Tropical Systems

There was Hurricane Debby which impacted the Florida Gulf Coast in the Big Bend area in the first few days of the month. Then just last week, Hurricane Ernesto became extra-tropical in the North Atlantic and that's been it for what is usually the second busiest month of tropical season.

In this graphic from the National Hurricane Center, you can see where we are in the season and how explosive this time of year can be in the tropics.

As August transitions into September and the peak of the hurricane season we are seeing tropical activity beginning to fire up in the equatorial regions of the Atlantic Ocean. The NHC is currently monitoring two tropical waves. One of those waves could be problematic for the Gulf of Mexico by late next week.

Where Will This Tropical Wave Go?

Current tropical model guidance suggests the system, which has been given a 50% chance to strengthen into a tropical cyclone by Labor Day, will continue to move westward into the Caribbean Sea. From the Caribbean, the model guidance suggests the system will turn north into the Gulf of Mexico.  If you'd like to see an animated presentation of the GFS Model, you can do that here. 

More and more of the models are in agreement with this generic scenario. However, most of the models do keep the system well to the east of Louisiana at this juncture. This is where we remind you that models are models and not official forecasts. This forecast scenario will change a lot between now and next weekend.

Here's what Dave Baker is thinking, Dave has been a trusted name in the weather game for many years.

But the bottom line is this, there are two systems being watched for tropical development by the Hurricane Center. One of those systems has a 50% probability of strengthening and will likely move into or very close to the Gulf of Mexico by late next week. That's really all you should concern yourself with regarding the tropics at this time.

Enjoy your Labor Day Weekend and check back with us next week. We should have a better grasp on whether this storm system will be a part of your plans or not.