National Hurricane Center Tracking Potential Tropical System Moving Into Gulf Waters
(KMDL-FM) Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center have identified an area of disturbed weather near the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf that could become a tropical cyclone by week's end. Tropical models and forecasts suggest that interests along the Texas and Louisiana coastline should monitor the system's progress and development over the next several days.
System in Gulf Given 50% Chance for Development
Forecasters have defined the system as a surface low-pressure trough. It is centered well to the south of the U.S./ Mexico border. The current forecast guidance suggests the system will move further into the Gulf over open water over the next day or so before making a turn to the north.
We should point out that the "hashed or striped" area you see in orange on the Hurricane Center graphic designates the area of possible development. It does not, nor should it, imply motion or direction of the storm system after development occurs.
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The official National Hurricane Center position on the system suggests environmental conditions for strengthening will not be conducive; the system has been given a 50% probability of becoming a tropical depression or potential tropical cyclone.
This is a slight "bump up" in potential. Earlier, the NHC had the potential for development listed at 40%. Still, conditions are not that much different now, nor are they expected to be that much different in the Gulf in the coming days.
To be designated as a tropical depression, the system would have to have a confirmed closed circulation and maximum sustained surface winds up to 38 mph. Should those winds surpass 38 mph, then the storm system would earn a name. The next name on the 2026 Tropical Cyclone name list is Isaias.
What Should South Louisiana Expect From This Tropical System in the Gulf?
The current forecast for South Louisiana for the end of the week suggests that tropical moisture will play a part in your plans. The official National Weather Service outlook for Friday includes a growing threat of showers by Friday night. It also appears as though Saturday and Sunday will hold a threat of showers as well.
READ MORE: FEMA Says These 6 Louisiana Parishes at Greatest Hurricane Risk
Our best advice over the next day or so is to watch and wait and stay informed. Conditions could change significantly between now and the end of the week, and based on what we know about how tropical systems behave in the Gulf, things could change rapidly as well.
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