New Fall Forecast Released – Looking ‘Cool’ for Louisiana

This morning students in Evangeline Parish, Louisiana will be returning to school. Many other school systems, Calcasieu, Lafayette, St. Martin, Acadia, and a host of others will welcome students back to the classroom this week as well. That's about as sure of a sign that fall is on its way as we can imagine.

I would guess the return of football teams to fall practices and the sudden run on notebooks, pencils, paper, and other school supplies is a sure sign that the oppressive heat of August will soon be a memory. It won't be too much longer until the clanging of Magnalite pots filled with gumbo will become the rule and not the exception.

Cooler weather is fun to think about when your afternoon high temperature is forecast to be 97 degrees as it is across most of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. The chances of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm are minimal for the next few days so while there is no "official" heat advisory posted for today, it will be extremely hot and very dangerous. And no, the heat won't let up at all this week.

The good news for the fall in the deep south comes from two reliable and respected weather forecast outlets. One is the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service. They offer forecasts that look three months out and the latest one for Louisiana's temperatures looks like this.

You can see that Louisiana is listed in the "likely above" category when it comes to temperatures. The Old Farmer's Almanac is our second reliable forecast outlet. The OFA is somewhat in agreement with this way of thinking. The Old Farmer's Almanac says Louisiana will be near normal as far as temperatures go as we move into the fall months.

For this to make sense you'd need to know what "average" is for Louisiana. In September the average high is 87 degrees. In October we cool off considerably as the average high drops to 79 degrees. By November the average high for Louisiana is only 71 degrees.

The Climate Prediction Center also forecasts precipitation for the next three months and it does appear as though Louisiana will be in for slightly wetter than average weather.

Again, for this to make sense you'd need to know what "average" is. For September the average rainfall is 4.72 inches in Louisiana. That's slightly higher for October at 5.23 inches. The average drops down to 4.35 for November.  So, we can expect a slight uptick in rainfall which would be a good thing for our crawfish season.

The Old Farmer's Almanac is not quite as bullish on the rainfall as the National Weather Service. The OFA has Louisiana and much of southern Mississippi and Alabama forecast to be drier than average this fall. Oddly enough, just to the west in Texas, they're anticipating more precipitation than average.

Naturally, Mother Nature will do what Mother Nature is going to do but based on the available science and data, at least you have some idea of what to expect as we transition from the longer days of summer into the shorter days of fall.