Hurricane Center Wary of Development Near Louisiana Coast

Hurricane Season 2023 has been much ado about nothing for coastal residents of Louisiana through the first 10-plus weeks of the season. But this is August and those who have built a life along Louisiana's coastline know that August is when "prime-time" begins.  Here's what we mean by "prime-time".

It's during the final few weeks of August through the peak of the hurricane season in September and through mid-October that hurricanes and tropical storms are most likely to form and affect the United States coastline.

Louisiana is no stranger to those devastating storms and we are hoping that the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center will turn out to be nothing but some well-needed rain for the area.

Here's what the Hurricane Center is watching:

That graphic shows where forecasters believe an area of low pressure could form over the next seven days near Louisiana's coast. Never mind the two areas of potential development in the eastern Atlantic, our concern is the yellow-shaded area in the middle and western Gulf of Mexico.

And should this system develop it could truly be a double-edged sword for Louisiana's summertime. If all that develops is a low-pressure system or a tropical depression the system might bring inches of beneficial rainfall to the parched farmlands of Louisiana.

How Bad is the Drought in Louisiana?

As you can see there's a lot of "dusty bayous" across Louisiana because of the extreme summer heat and lack of rainfall over the past six weeks. So, a tropical low or even a depression might be a good thing.

However, water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are very warm. Hurricanes and tropical systems feed off of very warm waters and a weak low-pressure could spin up quickly into a storm system that nobody wants to see along their coastline.

This is where we need to note that the area identified by the Hurricane Center has only been given a 20% probability of development. And as of early this morning, August 16, 2023, there is nothing imminent that would require any significant action on your part.

But as we mentioned the Gulf is ripe for a tropical system to develop and explode and that's why we're mentioning this to you at such an early stage in the forecast cycle. We should note that at least one long-range tropical forecast model has predicted a system in the western Gulf of Mexico on or about August 24th. You can read that prediction here. 

The other concern about this potential tropical trouble spot is its proximity to the coastline. In fact, forecast models suggest this "system" will impact the coastline of the western Gulf by this time next week. As of now, the big question for Louisiana residents is "What kind of system if any will we be watching".

Of course, only time will tell and we do hope that the 2023 Hurricane Season continues to be "much ado about nothing". However, a little rain would be nice. But we can do without the torrential downpours and the damaging winds. We'll just have to wait and see what does or doesn't develop.

In the meantime, refresh your hurricane kit, go over your tropical plans with your loved ones, and let's hope all we see are some showers and cooler temperatures.

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