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Tracking Irma – The Latest Forecast

nhc.noaa.gov
nhc.noaa.gov

Hurricane Irma is making its presence felt in the Leeward Islands this morning. The Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph will brush through and by the northernmost islands in that chain late today and early Wednesday.

Hurricane warnings have been posted for many of the islands of the northern Carribean Sea including Puerto Rico. As with most hurricanes wind damage is only part of the concern. The storm is expected to create a six-foot storm surge over many of the islands.

That’s the story for now but for residents of the United States, the bigger question is where does the storm go after it passes by the islands?

The official track forecast from the National Hurricane Center brings Irma very close to South Florida by late Saturday and early Sunday. There is a general consensus among many of the tropical models that Florida will bear at least the initial brunt of this storm.

Here is the way the Global Forecast System (GFS) model sees the track of the storm.

Keep in mind that is a model run and NOT an official forecast. These models lose accuracy the further in time they look forward.

The bottom line is this. Irma is a very dangerous storm. Its final track is still very much up in the air. Wherever it makes landfall the risk for damage and loss of life will be high. We encourage you to stay informed should the track forecast put Irma into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

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