Good-Bye Erika, Hello Fred
As we've mentioned several times, this is the busy part of hurricane season and this year is certainly playing into that fact. Hurricane Erika dissipated just the other day and, no sooner was Erika history than Hurricane Fred popped up on the screen.
We've been very lucky this season and the El Nino effect seems to be operating at full strength. Erika fell victim to that meteorological phenomenon and, if the forecast come true and our luck holds out, Fred should meet the same fate.
As it stands right now, Hurricane is a pretty compact storm with a well defined eye and inner core, just the kind of storm that, under normal conditions could really build into a problem hurricane, but there are a lot of obstacles facing this storm and El Nino is chief among them.
For one thing, as Fred makes it's patch through the Atlantic, it will encounter some cooler water which is, of course, a hurricanes natural enemy. Also, as we have seen with the other Atlantic storms this year, Fred is entering an area where humidity is low and the upper level wind sheers are known to rip a hurricane apart. This should cause gradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more stable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours.The tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression in about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.